Top 10 takeaways from Aschenbrenner's AI vision

Plus: Apple and Meta discuss AI partnership

June 24, 2024

TOP 3 STORIES

Happy Monday! Here are today’s top 3 headlines:

☕️ 10 takeaways: AI from now to 2034

👀 Apple and Meta partnership?

💸 AI is coming for venture firms

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Leopold Aschenbrenner's Vision for AI: From Now to 2034

Leopold Aschenbrenner, formerly with OpenAI's Superalignment team and now leading an AGI-focused investment firm, has dropped a bombshell essay titled "Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead." This 50,000-word manifesto is stirring up Silicon Valley with its bold predictions on the future of AI. Here’s a digest of his eye-opening projections.

Why you should care: Aschenbrenner’s piece, although speculative, offers a fascinating look into the high-stakes world of AI development, drawing from cutting-edge conversations in tech hubs.

Top 10 takeaways from Aschenbrenner's AI vision:

  1. Trendlines tell all:

    • Deep learning continues to astound, despite constant skepticism. “The magic of deep learning is that it just works,” says Aschenbrenner.

  2. Defying skeptics:

    • Time and again, doubters say deep learning won’t achieve something—only to be proven wrong.

  3. AI researchers by 2027:

    • AI models might soon perform the work of today’s top researchers and engineers.

  4. AI as your coworker:

    • By 2027, expect AI to function more like an office colleague rather than a simple chatbot.

  5. Hitting the data wall:

    • We're running out of internet data for training, which could soon bottleneck AI progress.

  6. Beyond human-level AI:

    • AI won’t stop at human intelligence; superintelligent systems could be here by 2030.

  7. Economic tsunami:

    • AI could become the biggest revenue driver for top corporations, potentially creating the first $10 trillion company.

  8. National security alert:

    • Failing to secure AGI research may soon leak breakthroughs to adversaries like the Chinese Communist Party, posing significant risks.

  9. Superintelligence in defense:

    • AI will become the U.S.'s most critical national defense project.

  10. Preparedness gap:

    • Only a few hundred people truly grasp the impending AI revolution. Greater awareness and preparedness are crucial.

Reality check:

  • Aschenbrenner’s roots in the effective altruism movement and his role as an AI investor mean he’s not a neutral party. His bullish view on AGI isn't widely shared in the industry.

  • Many experts see immense value in AI where it currently stands, without the need to rush towards AGI.

Bottom line: Aschenbrenner’s essay isn’t just a prediction; it’s a call to action. His insights highlight the transformative power of AI and the urgent need for strategic planning and security measures. Whether or not you buy into the AGI hype, his vision offers a compelling roadmap for the future of technology. Get ready, the AI revolution is just getting started.

Apple and Meta might join forces in AI power play

In an unexpected twist, Apple and Meta are reportedly discussing a groundbreaking partnership to integrate Meta’s advanced AI into Apple Intelligence, potentially reshaping the AI landscape.

  • Apple's AI ambitions: To catch up in the generative AI race, Apple is exploring partnerships beyond its in-house models. OpenAI’s ChatGPT was the first announced partner at the recent Worldwide Developers Conference.

  • Surprising Meta partnership: Meta, the parent company of Facebook, and Apple are in talks to bring Meta’s Llama 3 AI model into the Apple ecosystem. This collaboration could leverage Apple’s massive user base and Meta’s cutting-edge AI technology.

  • Expanding AI ecosystem: Apple is also in discussions with other AI innovators like Anthropic and Perplexity, aiming to integrate their generative AI into Apple Intelligence.

  • User choice and premium AI services: If the partnerships materialize, Apple users could select from multiple AI models tailored to different tasks, with options for premium subscriptions directly through their devices.

  • Economic and competitive boost: While Apple would benefit from a cut in subscription revenues, AI companies could see a significant distribution boost. For Meta, this partnership would mark a major victory, especially in light of past tensions with Apple.

  • Regulatory and technical challenges: Navigating regulatory landscapes and ensuring smooth technical integration are key hurdles. Apple’s individual deal approach contrasts with the more open App Store ecosystem.

  • Strategic diversification: By partnering with multiple AI providers, Apple aims to avoid over-reliance on any single entity like OpenAI.

This potential collaboration highlights the evolving dynamics in the AI sector, where even staunch competitors like Apple and Meta may find common ground to dominate the future of technology.

How AI is transforming VCs

Artificial intelligence is transforming venture capital firms, with VCs predicting it could reduce staff by over 50%.

Why it matters: AI is reshaping venture capital by streamlining operations and enhancing decision-making, making the industry even more competitive.

Driving the news: Venture firms are adopting AI for portfolio management and data scraping to find hot startups. Matt Krna of Two Meter Capital uses generative AI to manage a vast portfolio with a minimal team, cutting the need for analysts by half. "If you were hiring an analyst class of six, now it's three," he said.

Firms like SignalFire and Bain Capital Ventures are using AI to track data and identify promising investments. Christina Melas-Kyriazi from BCV credits a machine learning model for discovering a high-growth startup outside typical tech hubs.

What they're saying: AI is expected to significantly reduce back-office roles. Sri Chandrasekar of Point72 Ventures believes firms not using AI will fall behind. However, the core of venture capital remains human relationships and intuition. Andy McLoughlin of Uncork Capital emphasizes, "People want to work with people."

James Currier of NFX predicts AI will level the playing field for investors. "Much of what a venture capitalist does—reading, summarizing, and ranking—is what large language models do well," he said. Still, the personal connection between founders and investors remains crucial. "Machines are a long way from that," Chandrasekar added.